Welcome!

Hey guys,

After a LONG hiatus (college, jobs, and marriage got in the way), I've now learned to balance things in my life. And so, I am happy to make three wonderful announcements:

1) Blog is back on, but new URL:   The Fantasy Baseball King
     --- http://thefantasybaseballking.blogspot.com/ ---

2) I'm writing some full-length articles for Pro Fantasy Baseball, at Pro Fantasy Baseball
     --- http://profantasybaseball.com/fantasy_baseball_news.php/ ---

3) I'm also taking par in an "experts" championship league through PFB, which you can follow by following this link-- LINK

Anyway, my apologies for the long break, but I'm happy to be back in the business. Hope to see you all at my new gigs!

Best,

Fantasy Baseball King

www.fantasybaseballking.com

1. Jonathan Papelbon (0.00, 0.71, 8 svs)

We knew he'd be good this year, but did anyone predict he'd become a shutout closer THIS quickly?

2. Bronson Arroyo (3-0, 3.04, 1.09)

Has been winning games and allowing very few runs.

3. Brad Penny (2-0, 1.88, 0.92)

Always had the talent, usually produces at a high level. His only problem is staying healthy. So far, so good.

4. Oscar Villarreal (4-0, 2.08, 0.92)


5. John Koronka (3-1, 3.75, 1.17)

Who? Came out of nowhere to win

6. Wandy Rodriguez (3-0, 2.52, 1.16)

Again, who? Has been

7. Dave Bush (2-1, 3.54, 1.00)

I always thought this guy would break out someday. Has produced pretty well the past couple of seasons, now coming into his own.

8. David Cortes (3-0, 0.00, 1.00)

9. Mike Maroth (3-0, 0.49, 1.15)

10. Jason Marquis (3-1, 3.55, 1.11)

Has been a pretty good pitcher for a few years now, but has been better than that so far this year.

As in any year, the young 2006 season is full of surprises. Some will prove to be births of careers, and some will sputter and die within a few weeks. And so, here are the early season surprises:

Hitters

1. Chris Shelton (.388 9 18)

Didn't take much guessing to figure out who'd be picked here. After being hailed as a sleeper, started with a bang, becoming one of the quickest to 9 homers ever. He's slowed down the past few games, but there's certainly a lot to like here.

Prognosis- FOR REAL. Slows down a bit, but has a very good season, going .300, 32, 112

2. Ty Wigginton (.302, 8, 20)

Wiggy has always been a fan favorite for his immense hustle, but he's also been known to be immensely streaky. Still, grabbed the starting job in Tampa Bay and ran with it. Has decent power.

Prognosis- STOP AND GO. Wiggy is a personal favorite of mine, but is not a first-caliber third baseman. He'll perform well at stretches, but then fall flat for a long time. If he gets the at-bats, could produce decently, .271, 20, 73

3. Nick Swisher (.316, 7, 17)

He's arrived. The poster boy of Moneyball is here, and he's good.

Prognosis- FOR REAL. His batting average will fall, but that power is for real. Look for a .265, 32, 92 year.

4. Craig Wilson (.314, 6, 13)

Craig Wilson? He's already hit more home runs than he did all last year, and has done in almost 1/4 the at bats. Has power (29 homers in 2004) but has never produced at this rate.

Prognosis- STOP AND GO. Like Wiggy, a nice player but not a star. Look for a year slightly better than 2004, as Wilson goes .271, 23, 74.

5. Alexis Rios (.400, 5, 16)

As with Nick Swisher, this star has finally risen! It's taken him a bit longer than most blue-chip prospects, but Alexis Rios has been hammering the ball every which way.

Prognosis- FOR REAL. Add another nice 5 tooler to the board, as Rios joins the likes of Grady Sizemore and Coco Crisp. Finishes at .295, 22, 85, 15.

6. Jason Repko (.340, 2, 9)

Admission- the writer had to look the player up before writing this. Upon examination, it does indeed appear Repko has decent pop, and could be in for an okay year.

Prognosis- SPUTTERS. Having a nice streak, but won't hold onto this luck. Hits .250, 15, 58.

7. Xavier Nady (.344, 5 10)

Yet another former stud prospect is hitting well this season. Remember, alot of prospects simply take more time to pan out. In X's case, he never got the sufficient playing time in San Diego.

Prognosis- STOP AND GO. Is he a future all-star? Maybe, maybe not. Right now, he's showing that when on, he can perform with the best. But he's still streaky, and may take another year to reach his potential. Look for .275, 24, 82.

8. Jack Wilson (.328, 4, 10)

Wilson had a spectacular season in 2004, only to fall flat in 2005. He's capable of some nice things, but has certainly provided more power than expected.

Prognosis- ALMOST. Not THIS good. Also not as good as he looked in 2004. Still, not quite as bad as in 2005. Look for something in between- .275, 9, 55, 8.

In the near future:

1. I'll finish analyzing closers.
2. I'll complete AL predictions.
3. I'll analyze early-season surprises and let-downs and let you know which ones are shadows and which are real.

I'll do the AL in a few days...when I do, I'll calculate wins and losses at the same time.


NL East

1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

You heard it here- the Mets are for REAL! Pedro looks healthy and, regardless of the speed of his fastball, will continue to dominate opposing lineups. David Wright will turn out to be one of the best players of his generation, Delgado and Beltran will rake all year, and Billy Wagner gives the team what it has been most lacking- confidence in the 9th inning.

The Phillies have the firepower, but do they have the pitching? Look for Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to mash all season.

The Atlanta Braves may have a decade and a half streak going, but with the young lineup, lack of a brilliant pitching coach, and John Smoltz no longer closing, the team won't see the post-season for the first time since in a long time.

The Florida Marlins will be better than people predict, but remember- people aren't predicting that much to begin with. The talent is there, but it's raw. Will Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera be there in 2007?

The Washington Nationals have problems...many of them. They may lose close to 100 games.


NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Houston Astros
5. Cincinnati Reds
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

The St. Louis Cardinals will ride Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Chris Carpenter to the division title.

THe Milwaukee Brewers, however, are my pick for "suprise team of the year". In fact, I'm taking a shot in the dark that they may even represent the NL in the world series. Doug Davis is supremely underrated, and Ben Sheets is healthy. Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins, Prince Fielder, and Richie Weekes add up to a solid offensive attack. Derrek Turnbow is awesome.

Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Kerry Wood, and Greg Maddux COULD theoretically form the best 1-2-3-4 starters in baseball...that is, IF Prior and Wood could stay off the DL! Zambrano will be great, Maddux steady, and Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will hit homers. But injuries will dominate and the Cubs will fall short...again.

The Houston Astros will be good, but outside of Lance Berkman won't provide enough offense to support the brilliant pitching of Roy Oswalt and the very good pitching of Andy Pettitte.

The Reds will score runs, that much is for sure. Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, and Felipe Lopez provide for an excellent young core, and Ken Griffey Jr may stay healthy enough to bang out 25 or so. But pitching is a severe lack, and thus the Reds won't contend.

The Pirates have a few very talented youngsters in their rotation, but outside that, not enough to make much noise.

NL West
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies

The NL West may be the worst division in baseball, but the race for the top could be an intriguing one. The Padres should win it based on their pitching staff, headed by a simply awesome Jake Peavy. Baseball reference states his best comparison as Pedro Martinez...has anyone else realized that?

The Dodgers, if healthy, could make it a hot summer for SD. But with an offense that severly lacks, the absense of a true ace, and the suddenly perpetually unhealthy Eric Gagne, they will fall short.

What is San Fransisco going to do without a productive Barry Bonds? Probably float around the bottom half the standings, that's what. Once Bonds is either in jail or pitched around, not much on the Giants' lineup causes fear in the opposing pitcher.

In about 5 years, Arizona may be the best team in the NL. Their farm is absolutely unbelievable, and as a few of their higher touted guys will make the jump this season (Conor Jackson! S. Drew?), they may prove interesting. Outside Brandon Webb, however, there isn't too much here.

Will the Colorado Rockies ever amount to much? In this writer's humble opinion, no. While it's a blast to watch the balls fly out, pitchers don't want to sign here, leaving the team almost entirely inept. Additionally, even good hitters develop bad habits when placed away from Coors, thus nullifying the home field effects on good bats.


NL MVP: Albert Pujols
Runners Up: David Wright, Bobby Abreu, Ryan Howard
NL Cy Young: Carlos Zambrano
Runners Up: Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy
NL Rookie of the Year: Prince Fielder
Runners Up: Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham
NL Comeback Player: Austin Kearns
Runners Up: Lance Berkman, Carlos BEltran

This will be my new format for monitoring closers.

Arizona- Jose Valverde has a good hold on the job, but is an injury risk.
Atlanta- Chris Reitsma does nothing for me- look for Joey Devine eventually.
Baltimore- Chris Ray looks great so far...could be a top tier closer.
Boston- Jonathan Papelbon has been huge for the Red-Sox...still a slight chance Keith Foulke earns his job back- monitor this.
Chicago AL- Bobby Jenks has talent, but had a horrible spring. Bob Howry next?
Chicago NL- Ryan Dempster could just have turned his career around by going into the bullpen.
Cincinnati- David Weathers isn't my favorite closer...but is there anyone else?
Cleveland- Bob Wickman is not a fit closer- look for Rafael Betancourt eventually.
Colorado- What, a closer effective in Coors?! Brian Fuentes is for real, but could struggle for save opp's.
Detroit- Fernando Rodney should run with the job.
Florida- Don't worry that Joe Borowski isn't that good...neither are the Marlins- not many saves nor opp's here.
Houston- No qualms here- Brad Lidge is the man.
Kansas City- LA AL- He may be worked, but Francisco Rodriguez is a stud.
LA NL- Eric Gagne is hurt again- Good thing for Danys Baez!
Milwaukee- Derrick Turnbow has emerged as an elite closer.
Minnesota- Joe Nathan's smooth sailing ship continues.
NY AL- Mariano Rivera.
NY NL- Wagner blew his first save and stole Mo's music! My guess is he's fine.
Oakland- Huston Street is the next Mariano Rivera.
Philadelphia- Tom Gordon is good, quite good.
Pittsburgh- Mike Williams should develop and emerge, but monitor the situation.
San Diego- Trevor Hoffman should have a similarly steady Trevor Hoffman year.
San Francisco- Tim Worrell isn't Armando Benitez, but one of 'em will get saves.
Seattle- Eddie Guardado is steady, but could get injuried any day. Watch J.J. Putz
St. Louis- Jason Isringhausen- see Seattle's Guardado.
Tampa Bay- Dan Miceli huh? See Cincy's Weathers.
Texas- Francisco Cordero is the Alfonso Soriano of closing, but he'll get alot of saves.
Toronto- B.J. Ryan may be a tad overrated, but JUST a tad.
Washington- Chad Cordero won't get the same save spots this year, but is a stud.

First, note that Tim Worrell and Dan Miceli are now closing, as Armando Benitez has injured himself and Chad Orvella has been optioned.

Now, here are the names I've been targeting as will-be-closers:

Fernando Rodney- will replace Todd Jones at some point...either when Jones collapses or is traded.
Joey Devine- Chris Reitsma? The Braves can do better, and this kid is their future.
Rafael Betancourt- Bob Wickman is not a fit closer for a team as good as the Indians. Look for Rafey to step up by mid-season. If not him, Francisco Cabrera and Guillermo Mota are other possibilities.