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To win your league, a key ingredient will assuredly be players targeted in the later rounds. In big drafts, somewhere between rounds 12 and 15 signals the beginning of the filler stage. It is here that you have two options:

1. Go for the "safe" bet.
2. Take a risk.

While superfluous risks are never a good idea, taking the sound road will almost always result in a roster stuffed with overaged, overvalued, and underperforming players. For example, when choosing a 5th starter, extra RP, or bench hitter, examine your options carefully. Check out these stats:

Player A: .277 20 89
Player B: .240 18 67

On first glance, Player A appears to be a much better option, beating B in every category. A, however, is Craig Monroe, a guy unlikely to get any better than the numbers posted last season. B, on the other hand, is Austin Kearns, the young but injury-prone Reds outfielder. At worst, he'll repeat last year's stats. At best, though, the sky is the limit. (Not to mention he's hitting the hell outta the ball this spring).

Another example, this time with pitching:

Player A: 14 wins, 3.46 ERA
Player B: 12 wins, 4.26 ERA

Again, like above, Player A posted better statistics than B last season. Who are the mystery guys? A is the aging Kenny Rogers, while B is the up-and-coming Chris Young.

Some of my favorite sleepers (minus rookies/prospects, whom you should familiarize yourself with separately):

Catcher
Ramon Hernandez- should get more at-bats this season, could hit 20 homers.
John Buck- second year should bring better numbers.

First Base
Aubrey Huff- he's better than he showed last season.
Justin Morneau- could easily become one of the leading home run hitters this year.
Lyle Overbay- hitting prime age, moving into good park to boost power.
Brad Wilkerson- Texas will help his numbers...good OBP will continue.
Chris Shelton- Why is he hitting 8th? Regardless, could hit 30 homers and 90+ rbis.
Nick Johnson- He's on the way up, and if he doesn't get hurt again could become a
monster.

Second Base
Mark Loretta- has history of a .300 hitter...look for a rebound in Boston.
Bill Hall- supersub could go 20-20 with enough at-bats.
Jose Vidro- usually a star at the position...health key to a rebound.

Shortstop
Edgar Renteria- surely overrated, but also better than he played last season.
Nomar Garciaparra- like so many, health the key.
Clint Barmes- lit it up the first part of 2005, but got injured. A rebound in
Coors?
Bobby Crosby- could hit 25 homers this year.
Orlando Cabrera- good bet to go 15-15 this year...better than last season.
JJ Hardy- decent pop...could hit 15 homers.

Third Base
Chipper Jones- a sleeper? Limited playing time last season proved he still has
power.
Eric Chavez- again, huh? While he had a solid season, this writer is betting on
BIG things.
Scott Rolen- and...again! Should have no problem producing usual.
Adrian Beltre- not as good as 2004, but better than last season.
Joe Crede- can playoff wonders continue and help him realize his potential?
Dallas McPherson- post-hype production?
Edwin Encarnacion- plenty of protection in that lineup...could go .285, 18, 80.
Kevin Youkilis- time for Greek God of Walks to show what he can do.

Outfield
Vernon Wells- has made it a point to state his intention of improving.
Will be a big bat on an improved team.
Matt Holliday- He plays in Coors.
Aaron Rowand- Playing in Philly, in that lineup especially, will boost
his numbers.
Jason Lane- power is obvious, should make more contact.
JD Drew- Cross the fingers and pray for health.
Rocco Baldelli- Forget the injury, concentrate on 20-20.
Alexis Rios- Must find playing time, but if he does, could be another
power-speed guy.
Austin Kearns- See JD Drew.
Corey Patterson- Hard-pressed to produce...last chance he has.
Matt Murton- Where'd he come from? Should hit close to .300 with 15-20
homers.


Starting Pitchers
Brandon Webb- Good peripherals, potentially better team could lead to
more wins.
Jason Schmidt- Look for a rebound...won't be CY quality, but still good.
Doug Davis- has gone virtually unnoticed past couple years...will win 15+
Jake Westbrook- Lots of wins in Cleveland.
Joe Blanton- The next Oakland star...joins Harden, Zito, and Haren.
Jeff Weaver- Wants to and could step it up big time this year.
Chris Young- Move to SD great. Could win 15 with a 3.50 era.
Ervin Santana- May not start in rotation, but has potential.
Josh Towers- Impressing, and could fill in nicely with 10 or more wins.
Jorge Sosa- Has unbelievable talent, could blossom this year or next.
Carlos Silva- See Doug Davis.
Jae Seo- Awesome numbers when given a chance...now he has a real one.
Aaron Heilman- Should end up in Mets rotation...Strikeout potential.
Odalis Perez- A rebound is highly probable.
Oliver Perez- Could go 18-9 or 9-18...era of 3.20 or 6.20.
Jerome Williams- See Jorge Sosa.
Edwin Jackson- May finally be on track...wins will be hard to come by,
but could post decent peripherals.

Power, power, power! Speed, speed, speed! These are the treasured tools fantasy drafters search long and hard for on draft day. But rather than draft Troy Glaus and Scott Podsednik, why not try some other tempting options? These guys will provide a little bit of everything:

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Derek Lee

2B: Chase Utley

SS: Felipe Lopez

3B: David Wright

OF: Jason Bay

OF: Grady Sizemore

OF: Bobby Abreu


I have participated in draft after draft this preseason, and have yet to be able to assemble the above lineup while at the same time producing a capable pitching staff. While that goal may prove futile, being aware of such players will pay off in the long run. Much better to have 2 guys hit .300, 20, 95, 15 than one guy hit .265, 40, 100, 5 and another hit .300, 5, 45, 55. Remember that. For that reason, I make it a rule to stay away from players who contribute in two categories or less. This same reason has led me to look for closers late, finding bargains in saves where I can and stockpiling bullhorses to stack up IP for my ERA and WHIP categories. I leave k's to SP's and make sure I just compete in saves.

My ardent apologies on the lack of posts as of late...but without delay, here is Round Six:

51. Ben Sheets 17-8 3.21 205/215
52. Mark Buehrle 15-7 3.55 235/140
53. Randy Johnson 16-11 3.65 215/205
54. Eric Chavez .284 35 108 7
55. Hideki Matsui .309 32 112 2
56. Scott Podsednik .279 4 46 61
57. Johnny Damon .318 15 80 24
58. Mariano Rivera 1.85 41 svs 74 ks
59. Andy Pettitte 14-11 3.50 190/170
60. Paul Konerko .284 38 109 0

Sheets is an up-and-coming ace and playing for a much improved BrewCrew. Look for more wins, consistent ERA, and lots of k's.

Buehrle certainly is Mr. Consistent. 5 straight years of at least 14 wins, 220 IP, and an ERA under 4.20. He's entering his prime and is playing for a championship-caliber team.

Randy Johnson had a bad year by his standards, but still a good year by any other mortals standards. While he is no longer the untouchable ace of a few years back, he'll be a good bet for a slight comeback in 2006.

One of these years, Eric Chavez will have a breakout .295, 40, 125 year...This year may not be it, but look for him to build towards that. An improved Athletic's lineup won't hurt.

Hideki Matsui is simply solid. Playing in a studded Yankees lineup, high rbi totals should come no matter if he hits 15 or 40 homers. Look for somewhere in between and hope he unleashes...he could get even better.

Scotty P is overrated, plain and simple. While I don't usually recommending one dimensional players, however, Podsednik has the potential to steal 70 bags, making him a must if he lasts this long. By the way, check out how his homerun totals dropped from 9 and 12 to 0.

Johnny Damon pissed off a LOT of people outside the Bronx this winter, but for solid contributions in all 5 categories, he's a great pick. Look for more stolen bases this year.

Mariano Rivera may go earlier in a lot of drafts, but I can't justify selecting a closer before Round Six. If you're thinking of wasting an early selection on any closer, though, make sure it's Mo.

When you hear about career years, automatically insert "Andy Pettitte- 2005" into the conversation. The guy just isn't an ace. Look for a decrease in each category, but still expect solid numbers.

Paul Konerko revitalized his career in 2004, and the breakout became a trend when he topped 40 homers for two consecutive years. More of the same to come.

First, let me apologize for the lag in posts. I have been extremely busy with the following:

1. midterms
2. Ritz Carlton internship
3. preparing an article for a fantasy baseball website/magazine, which will come out in the near future.

Check back later tonight for updates, and thank you all for such loyal readership!

I have now undergone two Yahoo roto drafts, both 12 teams with 5x5 scoring. I do alot of these in prep for what I label "the big ones", that is, the leagues in which I participate with friends, posting buddies, etc. Anyway, here are some observations:

-The first 4 picks in each have been differing in order but both consisting of Vladdy, Pujols, ARod, and Teixeira.

-David Wright is a first-rounder, going 10th and 11th.

-Andruw Jones is way overrated, going in the 2nd round in each of these drafts

-The Big Five Speedsters (Crawford, Reyes, Figgins, Ichiro, and Pods) go in the first 4 rounds.

-While Mariano Rivera was picked in the 3rd and 4th rounds, the runs occurred in the 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds. If you want a big closer, choose one here.

-No one seems to realize Josh Willingham is: a)an existing entity; b)a member of the Florida Marlins Baseball Organization; c) capable of .290, 20, 85 this year; and d)eligible at catcher

-Oliver Perez went in the 12th in one draft, while going completely undrafted in another.


It's 3:25 am...more observations on the flip side.

31. Jeff Kent .281 24 102 5
32. Mark Prior 15-9 3.24 1.19 188/214
33. Gary Sheffield .286 32 111 9
34. Carlos Delgado .282 37 118 0
35. Lance Berkman .302 32 110 8
36. Rich Harden 14-7 3.39 1.24 208/191
37. Travis Hafner .291 37 114 1
38. Derek Jeter .317 19 87 13
39. Carlos Lee .280 30 109 15
40. Rafael Furcal .290 12 57 33

Jeff Kent is nearing the end of a spectacular hitting career. However surly he may be, he produces. Draft him and expect more of the same.

Mark Prior just needs to be healthy to make a run at best pitcher in the NL. If he's available after the 3rd round, give him a shot.

Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado just keep hitting and hitting and hitting. Sheff has had over 34 homers and 100 rbis 6 of the past 7 years, while Delgado has topped 32 and 102 in 7 of the past 8.

Lance Berkman showed, towards the end of the season, that he is finally healthy. He has a shot at .315,40,120, so grab him and cross your fingers! Even if he doesn't reach that level, he'll do just fine.

Rich Harden and Travis Hafner are two up-and-coming studs. Harden has been lights out when healthy enough to start, and this year could be his real breakout. Hafner has spent the past two seasons belting balls out in Cleveland, and if he can just get his games played up, he'll bolster your offense even more.

Derek Jeter, the truest pro's pro, is also as steady as it comes in fantasy baseball.

Carlos Lee reminds me of Garret Anderson in that he is an RBI machine. Expect a streak of years like last season.

Rafael Furcal or Jimmy Rollins? Who's better? What's the difference? They're damn similar in that either could easily go .280 12 55 35 any given year. But Rollins packs a little more power, evident by his high double totals, leading me to believe a power boom may lie in his future. Furcal, on the other hand, has seen his power decline over the past three years. Additionally, while Furcal stole 46 bases last season, his success rate was his lowest in a few years. Meanwhile, Rollins' success rate has gotten better. These factors lead to Rollins being the better player, if by a small margin, here on out.

Check back for Rounds 4-6 by Friday, along with analysis of each 10 teams involved. Thank you for reading!

21. J. Peavy 16-7 3.19 1.14 197/208
22. A. Soriano .271 33 93 24
23. R. Halladay 15-4 3.33 1.05 195/147
24. C. Carpenter 18-7 3.40 1.11 225/185
25. V. Martínez .318 21 103 0
26. A. Ramírez .296 41 115 0
27. C. Figgins .293 7 60 55
28. J. Rollins .295 13 65 37
29. Ichiro .328 12 55 32
30. C. Zambrano 14-5 3.08 219/193

Jake Peavy is simply an awesome young ace. In a very similar mold to a young Pedro Martinez, Peavy should dominate for years.

Alfonso Soriano is perhaps the most overrated player in all baseball. His moody behavior, wild approach, and disastrous defense leave much to be desired. He never built on the strong promise he showed with the Yankees. His power.speed combo at 2B, however, is something your fantasy team could use.

Roy Halladay was on his way to another Cy Young bid before injury struck, and could easily pick up where he left off. Chris Carpenter may have developed late, but he has turned into a true workhorse frontline starter. While he will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's performance, look for more solid numbers across the board.

Victor Martinez was a top prospect who had a stellar rookie season and, while it didn't seem like it at times, more or less repeated his numbers this past year. With players such as Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore emerging around him, look for an improvement in batting average.

Aramis Ramirez has now put up good to great stats in 4 of the past 5 seasons, quietly becoming one of the best hitters in all the game. His 31 homers last season came in only 123 games, so look for a big power inflation with a full year.

Chone Figgins is multi-position eligible...making him very, very valuable. He's also one of the best base-stealers in the game, and packs a very good batting average. Jimmy Rollins turned it up down the stretch last year, and proved he's truly an elite shortstop. He'll continue solid pop and good speed for several more years.

Ah, Ichiro...is there any other player in the game such a sure bet to reach .300? Pujols, but after that...When last season's stats could be considered a down season, you know you're good.

Mark Prior and Kerry Wood may get all the press, but Carlos Zambrano is the most reliable pitcher on the Cubs. He isn't quite Jake Peavy level, but he's also not far behind, so grab him if he's available.

11. D. Wright .321 31 118 22
12. B. Abreu .307 27 104 28
13. Mi. Cabrera .316 36 111 4
14. P. Martínez 18-7 2.88 1.04 208/222
15. C. Utley .296 26 103 19
16. M. Tejada .286 28 112 6
17. R. Oswalt 16-8 3.09 1.21 230/184
18. D. Lee .291 34 100 15
19. J. Reyes .286 11 62 70
20. C. Beltrán .287 26 102 36

David Wright was supposed to be a Scott Rolen clone, but ever since AA he has shown he could possibly be so much more. Look for him to make even more strides this season and, in a few years put up .340/35/120/25.

Bobby Abreu is as steady as she blows, but may be on the downside of a fantastic career. Still, look for at least one more fantasy dream.

Miguel Cabrera would garner more production and a higher draft place if not for his abysmal supporting class.

Pedro may be aging, but he sure didn't show it last season. The naysayers have nothing to say now...look for more of the same dominance.

Chase Utley may actually be a pretty similar player to David Wright (for now anyway), and at 2B, what's not to love about those numbers? He's the top choice at his position with Alfonso Soriano sinking deeper and deeper.

Miggy may have inherited the crown from ARod and Nomar before him, but he didn't keep it long. A good, if not great ballplayer, but questions about steroids linger. He will slip a bit, but at shortstop still provides awesome power.

Has anyone noticed the career Roy Oswalt is putting together? He has 83 career victories against only 39 losses, and his career ERA is a fantastic 3.07! He'll get better, and will add another year to his future HOF career.

Was that Derrek Lee contending for the Triple Crown most of the season? You betya! That's what people envisioned when he left Florida for Chicago. However, this writer personally feels he will fall just a tad. Still worth a top pick.

Jose Reyes is flawed in real life, however young he is. He needs to be more patient in order to become the leadoff hitter the Mets need. But in fantasy baseball, his speedy ways pay off and land him a 2nd round spot. Look for him to threaten 80 steals, incraese his batting average, and not look completely miserable in the power selection. A future .300/15/65/80 year lies there somewhere.

The fourth Met of this round, Carlos Beltran, could very well be the biggest payoff of the draft. He has the ability to go .300/35/40, but will he? Many thought he would make that jump last season, but either the deep dimensions of Shea, a nagging injury, or the New York atmosphere got to him. Whatever it was, count it up as bad luck and look to profit big time.

Assuming a 10 team, serpentine draft in a standard roto league...

Name 2006 Prediction

1. V. Guerrero .324 37 127 23
2. A. Pujols .347 41 138 11
3. Á. Rodríguez .309 43 131 17
4. C. Crawford .303 18 85 55
5. M. Teixeira .293 51 142 6
6. Jo. Santana 18-9 2.77 0.93 235/250
7. M. Ramírez .312 38 122 0
8. D. Ortiz .287 46 133 0
9. M. Young .327 21 103 11
10. J. Bay .319 33 117 25

Vladdy was my numero uno choice simply because he is an outfielder, which have suddenly become in short supply. He proved his back no longer bothers him and should easily improve from last season.

King Albert is the best hitter in baseball, barnone. His position made him number 2.

ARod had his typical .300/40/135/15 seasona and should continue next year.

Carl Crawford took a big step towards his true potential. By this time next season, we could be placing him atop the list. He has the potential to go .315/25/50 if all breaks right, just maybe not this season.

Mark Teixeira has established himself as a true basher, and should remain so for the next 10 years. J

ohan Santana proved why he is the best pitcher in baseball, even if the Cy Young voters didn't agree.

Teammates David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez could be drafted in either order; both will deliver huge BA, HR, and RBI numbers.

Michael Young surpassed Miguel Tejada has baseball's number one fantasy shortstop.

Jason Bay broke out, and may increase his value even more this season. 30-30 remains a good possibility.

Please visit back soon for my 2006 rankings!